3 days ago
Beating the consensus: Fantasy football ADP winners from Justin Fields to Cooper Kupp
There are players the fantasy market irrationally hates. Their ADPs make little sense, but the consensus means they keep being drafted low, reason be damned. It's groupthink at this point. If you want the room's approval with the murmur of 'good pick,' you can't take these players. You'll only get raised eyebrows — and higher win probability in your league.
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Fade the conventional wisdom, pay the market price and profit. These opportunities exist every year, just waiting to be capitalized on. I'll note the positional ranking according to Fantasy Pros as well as my positional rankings. (I eschew overall ranks since the number of receivers you are allowed to play, typically three or four, determines whether you should prioritize running backs or wide receivers, respectively.)
LOL Jets. Gang Green (or is it gangrene) can't have nice things. They are Wile E. Coyote pulling down the shade in the TNT shack right before it gets smashed by the train. But what if you don't believe in curses? In his starts last year, Fields was the QB6. And that's the floor. The Jets' offensive line is good and could be great. Unlike the Steelers, their plan is for Fields to embrace his unique running ability with his WR speed and great size at 230 pounds. I expect 1,000 rushing yards and 10 TDs. But we don't have to pay for it because the world is snickering and assuming the Green and White will be a joke in perpetuity.
He's already had a season as QB7 in fantasy. How is he five slots behind Caleb Williams, when everything you can say about Williams you can say about Lawrence, and, unlike Williams, Lawrence has been a fantasy asset already in his career. Passing game guru as head coach? Check. Elite weaponry? Check. The talent of a No. 1 overall draft pick? Check. I am agnostic about QBs, but I believe in wide receivers, and I think Brian Thomas and Travis Hunter will be at or near the top of NFL WR tandems.
Taylor won his managers money last year with a playoff explosion. But by then, almost everyone who plays our game had tuned out because they were eliminated. So they missed that he averaged 100 rushing yards per game with nearly a TD per game. I understand if you think that if Anthony Richardson is the Colts' QB, then Taylor's targets and catches collapse into virtual nothingness.
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It's a huge swing in Taylor's favor if Daniel Jones is his QB, about 30 to 40 expected catches. But even then, Richardson is such a running threat that defenses can't key on Taylor. Last year, when both were on the field, Taylor averaged 4.8 yards per tote and had 9 TDs. He averaged 15.8 fantasy PPG in those Richardson starts — 267 points per 17 games, which would have been RB8 last year. So that's his range: Possibly RB1 with Jones, given those extra catches, to about RB8 with Richardson and without the catches. So anyway you slice it, RB10 makes zero sense.
We're all still infatuated with Patrick Mahomes' fantasy mediocrity. So we're conditioned to think the Chiefs' RB is an afterthought who an explosive passing offense will marginalize. But the Chiefs grind it out on offense now and win with defense, the ideal environment for a bell-cow RB.
Is that Pacheco? Well, who else is it going to be? He looked bad last year after returning from injury, but that injury should've been a season-ender. I can't take Kareem Hunt and Elijah Mitchell seriously, due to age and an inability to stay healthy, respectively. Remember, before he was hurt, Pacheco was on pace for 300 touches, including 59 catches. He'll be the goal-line back, and the Chiefs don't sneak or tush push (0.1% designed runs for Mahomes last year).
All the evidence supports my long-held position that Hunter is a wide receiver first and foremost. He played 92% of snaps with the first-team offense in the first preseason game. He's a starting WR on the depth chart and a backup CB. The head coach said the plan is for Hunter to get at least 80% of the snaps on offense. There's a belief Hunter is merely a generic first-round receiver and not one who would be drafted near the top of the round if not for his two-way skills. But most experts say that's false and maintain that he was by far the best WR prospect in a draft in which another WR went top-10 overall.
Look, Hunter's already up from WR35 last week, and the market is going to land at WR20, I confidently predict, by your late-August draft day. By then, I'll probably move him to WR15. Remember, this market had Marvin Harrison Jr. as the WR8 last year, so even WR15 is cheap for this talent. I think he and Brian Thomas will help each other, and each will command 25%+ of targets, similar to Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
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The market proclaims, 'He's DONE!' Well, the Seahawks don't think so. They gave him a three-year contract. Kupp was hurt last year, so I don't hold that against him. He's been hurt a lot, it's true. This is his age-32 season. I want you to pay WR41, believe me. But if Kupp can stay healthy, he's getting 130 targets. Do the math. No matter how they want to run, the Seahawks will throw 525 passes. How many are you giving JSN? 300? Even at 175, that leaves 350 targets, and where is the competition for them? Kupp is not a Hall of Famer, but he's a historic fantasy WR and could rebound like Adam Thielen did not long ago at a similar age. He's free money now. You can't profit from fading Kupp at that price; you should draft him there.
I don't get it. The man averaged nearly 11 yards per target. He was elite at separating in the intermediate zone (10-19 air yards downfield). He just got a three-year contract. He is on the field almost as often as Zay Flowers (WR26 in the market), who goes 31 WR slots earlier. He plays with an MVP favorite who will likely throw for 40 TDs again. So Bateman, who had nine scores in 2024, is a solid bet to haul in that many or more scores again. At worst, he's the arbitrage Flowers. He's an easy pick where he's going, and the worst manager in your league will just look at the 2024 TDs. But we're (the rankers) the worst for giving him his current ADP.
Again, follow the money. Palmer got serious coin from the Bills, starter money at $29 million for three years with $18 million guaranteed. Why can't he get 120 Josh Allen targets? That is ostensibly the Buffalo plan, and Palmer is WR74, basically undrafted? Madness. He's averaged 9.2 yards per target the past two years, which is solid, and that nets out to 1,100 yards if I'm right about the targets and his efficiency carries forward with the MVP QB. The expert market pays zero attention to contracts, but money is speech, and the Bills are telling us they think Palmer is a leader in their passing game. And this isn't a contract they may want to eat — they just signed him!
(Photo of Cooper Kupp: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
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